Wednesday, April 8, 2009

No one can predict the recovery

Though everyone can put a number on how much the semiconductor industry is down, even Intel Corp, www.intel.com the world’s largest chipmaker, and cannot predict exactly when the industry will revive.
Last week the Semiconductor Industry Association www.sia-online.org reported that worldwide sales of semiconductors were $14.5 billion in February, a decline of 30.4% compared to February 2008 sales of $20.3 billion. And in a month on month comparison, sales declined 7.6% from January when sales were at $15.3 billion, SIA said.
“Demand for semiconductors is likely to continue well below 2008 levels for the next few quarters, with a gradual recovery to follow as the global economy recovers,” SIA president George Scalise said in the report.
This week the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) organization www.wsts.org reported that the global market for semiconductors stood at $13.47 billion in February 2009, down 27.2% from the $18.5 billion reported in February of 2008 in a somewhat higher number comparison. The WSTS numbers are based on actual results, and may hint at a slight improvement in the industry.
This week when asked to predict semiconductor recovery, Intel’s Chairman Craig Barrett responded that stimulus packages currently being rolled out by governments around the world would start seeing responses in six to 18 months, according to a Reuters’ report.
“So you pick your time that you want to recovery to occur in that six to 18-month period, and your guess is as good as anyone’s,” Barrett said while visiting Beijing.

Reverse Outsourcing

Did you notice the lack of attendees at APEX this year? For an editor, this gives us lots of time to interview, conduct panels, talk to leaders in the industry, and grant awards for innovative new products and services. For those involved in shipping large pieces of equipment and flying sales staff to Las Vegas, the experience takes on a whole new atmosphere. Although crowds were thin on the show floor (Denny McGuirk, president of IPC, estimated 20% to 25% down in registrations), those seeking an education filled up the technical sessions. Education makes employees more valuable to any company.

No one doubts that business in the U.S. has limped through a weak period. And in electronics, recent news revealed IBM’s Project Match, which offers laid-off U.S. and Canadian workers the chance to apply for jobs at the company located in India and other areas of low-cost labor around the globe. IBM would help with visas and moving costs, but the salaries would be the same as those within these low-wage areas.

Who would jump at moving somewhere else globally to earn less? Most of us drag our feet at moving between States for increased income. Let’s face it, this is a flat year globally for most EMS providers and OEMs already. Most industry analysts project negative growth, if any. And survival can spur life changes; that is certain.

Employees working at IBM in the U.S. must have known about the Wall Street Journal’s story last month announcing that IBM planned to lay off 5,000 U.S. employees with many of the jobs being transferred to India. Foreign workers account for 71% of IBM’s nearly 400,000 employees at present, WSJ said.

If it’s a global economic change, then we already know about that. The question is, are we improving the lives of individuals by taking them away from their families and homes only to pay them a lower wage? What would be the difference if foreign workers came to places where wages were higher, but families were distant? The problem with outsourcing employees is that all good business decisions are often poor choices for people. As people, do we raise the middle class if we lower incomes? Do we strengthen families by separating them?

As I write this, an invitation to teach English as a second language in a distant country sits on my desk. It doesn't pay well, but it may be an adventure...